Sales Modeling taking into account Weather Forecast Uncertainty Screenshot
The purple line indicates the number of sales we predicted based on the model and weather forecast. The blue bars indicate the sales numbers we already knew about when we developed the model. The gray bars indicate the actual number of sales made, collected a week after the predictions were made. The difference between the purple line and the height of the gray bars indicates how closely our predictions matched actual sales.
Because weather forecast accuracy tends to decrease as forecasters look further into the future, the yellow bands on the graph indicate the range of sales predictions our model would produce given the region's past weather forecast accuracy, and widen as we look further into the future.